Removing One Mainstream Assumption｜A Way of Thinking for Small Liquor Retailers to Survive

A Way of Thinking for Small Liquor Retailers to Survive

Three Disparate Threads

One morning, three pieces of material were sitting on my desk. One was a note regarding KUMA TOMATO, a unique tomato-based liqueur from Tsutsumi Distillery, a respected Kuma shochu producer in Kumamoto Prefecture. Another was a summary of Takafumi Nakanishi’s book, Next-Generation AI: Japan’s Path to Victory. The third was an editorial on menu design trends shaped by the growing “Sober Curious” movement in Bangkok’s dynamic dining scene.

Their categories could not have been more different: traditional liqueur, artificial intelligence, and modern restaurant culture. On the surface, there was almost nothing linking them.

But when placed side by side, a fascinating through-line began to appear. All three reveal a structure in which a breakthrough is found simply by removing a single mainstream assumption.

The Assumption Left Behind

KUMA TOMATO removes a foundational piece of common sense from the liqueur category. Normally, a liqueur is crafted as a “finished liquid.” The producer decides the exact flavor profile, and the consumer simply enjoys it. Instead, Tsutsumi Distillery envisioned a liquid combining the rich umami of locally grown tomatoes with the structural depth of traditional Kuma shochu｜not as a conclusion, but as an open-ended canvas. They presented it as an element for mixologists to bring to life on-site. Not a finalized product, but a beautifully crafted raw material. That single philosophical shift established an entirely new approach to the category.

What Nakanishi removes in his analysis of AI development is a much larger assumption: that the field is purely a competition of scale. For a long time, the dominant argument was that one had to relentlessly chase data volume, computing power, and parameter counts. Nakanishi steps away from that assumption and presents another path: focusing on domain specialization, reliability, and social integration. Not sheer technological scale, but contextual depth.

The rise of Sober Curious challenges an assumption in restaurant management. Restaurants have long been designed to earn profits from alcohol sales, so customers who did not order alcohol were seen as a lost revenue opportunity. Yet the number of guests who choose not to drink is increasing in cities worldwide, including Bangkok. Rather than overlooking them, some venues are beginning to build new revenue structures through low-alcohol and non-alcoholic menus.

A Shared Intellectual Movement

When observing these phenomena together, a shared intellectual movement becomes visible. Rather than competing directly within established paradigms, one simply removes a foundational assumption to reveal a completely different landscape. This is distinctly different from a conventional “niche strategy,” which merely divides an existing market. What is happening here is the elegant replacement of an underlying premise.

Tsutsumi Distillery removes the assumption that “a liqueur must be a finished product.” Nakanishi removes the assumption that “in AI, sheer scale is absolute.” Restaurant operators responding to Sober Curious remove the assumption that “restaurants must earn their profits from alcohol sales.” None of them sought to tear down the entire system. One assumption was enough. Remove one, and a new world of possibilities comes into view.

Questions for Liquor Retailers

This pattern also matters to us as importers and retailers of alcoholic beverages.

If sake is perceived merely as a beverage meant for inebriation, the Sober Curious movement might appear as a cultural shift away from it. However, if we reframe sake as a catalyst for experiencing the profound heritage of Japanese koji fermentation, a remarkable new horizon emerges. Individuals who wish to learn about the science of fermentation. Epicureans fascinated by regional food cultures. Health-conscious minds seeking deeper, more mindful experiences. Liquor retailers can create new points of contact with these groups.

In Bangkok’s distinctive market, we have already shifted toward experiential marketing. The three sources today suggest there may be further possibilities along that path.

Perhaps the next evolution in appreciating these crafts lies not in seeking entirely new elements, but in viewing the rich traditions already in our hands from an unexpected angle. The quiet insights born from that intellectual curiosity are often the ones that open the door to a deeper cultural experience. (Mr. Bacchus)

This article is intended solely to explore a structural pattern observed across three unrelated domains ｜ a Japanese tomato-based liqueur from Tsutsumi Brewery (Kumamoto), Takafumi Nakanishi’s book “Japan’s Winning Path in Next-Generation AI” (Nikkei Premier Series), and the Sober Curious menu design movement in Bangkok’s restaurant scene ｜ as a reflection on how shifting a single mainstream assumption can open new strategic ground for small businesses, including independent sake retailers, and is not intended to promote or encourage the consumption of alcohol. / บทความนี้จัดทำขึ้นเพื่อสำรวจรูปแบบเชิงโครงสร้างที่พบในสามอุตสาหกรรมที่ไม่เกี่ยวข้องกัน ได้แก่ ลิเคียวร์มะเขือเทศจากโรงสุรา Tsutsumi (Kumamoto), หนังสือ “เส้นทางชัยชนะของญี่ปุ่นใน AI ยุคถัดไป” โดย Takafumi Nakanishi (Nikkei Premier Series) และขบวนการออกแบบเมนู Sober Curious ในวงการร้านอาหารกรุงเทพฯ เพื่อสะท้อนว่าการเปลี่ยนสมมติฐานหลักเพียงหนึ่งข้อสามารถเปิดพื้นที่เชิงกลยุทธ์ใหม่ให้กับธุรกิจขนาดเล็ก รวมถึงร้านขายสาเกอิสระอย่างไร เท่านั้น มิได้มีเจตนาเพื่อส่งเสริมหรือโฆษณาเครื่องดื่มแอลกอฮอล์ สำหรับผู้มีอายุ 20 ปีขึ้นไป โปรดดื่มอย่างรับผิดชอบ

Related Articles

“The Shift in Perspective” / “The Missing Depth in Non-Alcoholic Drinks｜and How Koji Rebuilds the Glass” / “The Rise of the Mindful Drinker” / “Zebra Striping” / “Before Stories Inflate: The Quiet Necessity of Verification”

Related Product(s)

KUMA TOMATO