Falling Volumes, Diverging Price Segments: Reading the U.S. Wine Market’s “Hourglass” from Thailand

The U.S. wine market is shrinking. That statement might suggest that sales are declining equally across all price segments. Yet a closer look reveals that the contraction is far from uniform.

In the January 2026 edition of its annual wine industry report, a U.S. bank described the market as taking the shape of an “hourglass,” with certain price tiers growing while others continue to contract. The underlying figures offer a clearer picture.

Both Volume and Value Are Gradually Declining

According to the report’s estimates, U.S. wine sales totaled approximately 329.2 million cases in 2025 (based on the standard nine-liter case), down about 2% from approximately 335.9 million cases the previous year. Consumer spending on wine stood at roughly $74.3 billion, having declined from a peak of approximately $94 billion in 2020.

The report remains cautious about the prospect of a recovery in 2026. It expects the rate of decline to moderate during the year, with the market finding its floor around 2027-2028.

The Decline Varies by Price Segment

The report’s “hourglass” metaphor captures the diverging trajectories of individual price segments.

Wines priced below $20 per bottle remain weak, with the under-$12 segment experiencing a prolonged contraction. Meanwhile, growth is anticipated in the $20-$29 range and at the collector end of the market, where bottles command $100 or more. These nuances remain invisible when looking solely at aggregate market figures.

Generational Change Is Part of the Explanation

The report identifies a generational shift among wine buyers as a central factor behind the contraction.

Consumers aged 60 and older, who have historically accounted for a substantial share of wine purchases, are gradually stepping back from the center of the market. Meanwhile, consumers aged 29 and younger, who might be expected to replace them, purchase less wine than any previous generation did at the same age.

As noted in the previous year’s edition, many consumers aged 21-29 are gravitating toward other categories. Ready-to-drink (RTD) alcoholic beverages, including canned cocktails, have grown into an annual market worth $18 billion when products across various base spirits are combined. Sales of non-alcoholic and low-alcohol wines are also rising, though the report notes that their high growth rates partly reflect a relatively modest starting base. Against this backdrop, the report identifies consumers aged 30-45 as a pivotal demographic for the industry’s future.

Excess Supply Adds Downward Pressure on Prices

As demand softens, efforts to reduce supply have yet to keep pace.

The previous year’s report noted that vineyard acreage in California and Washington exceeded levels justified by demand, with Oregon beginning to face similar pressures. In the latest edition, 15% of wineries in the higher-priced segment reported that their inventories were excessive relative to demand.

California’s 2025 grape harvest was estimated at below 2.2 million tons, well short of the 4 million tons or more seen in abundant harvest years. Even so, the report suggests that further reductions in vineyard acreage remain necessary. Excess inventories tend to create pressure for wholesale discounting, a dynamic that continues to weigh on lower-priced wines.

Looking at the Figures Alongside Thailand

Although the local circumstances differ, the U.S. and Thai markets share an important lesson: aggregate figures rarely reveal what is happening beneath the surface.

In the United States, select price segments are expanding even as overall sales decline in both volume and value. In Thailand, wine import volumes remained almost unchanged during the first half of 2026, while import value increased by 13.71%, a pattern explored in our October article, “How to Read Thailand’s Wine Import Statistics.”

When value rises without a corresponding increase in volume, it suggests that reading the market requires close attention to shifts across price tiers rather than total volume alone. In this respect, Thailand’s figures point toward the same analytical approach as the U.S. report.

There is, of course, an important distinction. The U.S. figures measure consumer spending, whereas the Thai figures track import value. Variations in exchange rates and taxation also mean the two datasets cannot be compared directly. What they share is not necessarily the same conclusion, but a common lens for interpreting market data: looking past headline totals to examine the movement within individual price segments.

This perspective translates naturally to the purchasing records of restaurants and retail shops. A practical starting point is to divide a wine program into roughly three price tiers, then compare the volume and value of each against the same period in the previous year. The categories need not be overly granular; what matters more is tracking them consistently over time.

Even when overall sales remain flat, one price segment may be quietly gaining ground while another softens. Recognizing which tiers are moving and which have stalled brings greater clarity to the process of refining a wine list. Ultimately, whether the broader market is expanding or contracting may matter less to the next purchasing decision than understanding the quiet shifts occurring within one’s own records.

This article is intended solely to explore market trends in the wine industry and does not aim to promote or encourage the consumption of alcohol.

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